Sunday, May 16, 2010

Miscarriage Stats

Before I ever had my first miscarriage, I knew one was possible. I guess I knew because both my mom and sister had suffered one a piece. I didn't want it to happend, obviously, but having one seemed like a possiblity. Once I had the 1st, I figured I was in the clear and would not have any issues. Boy, was I wrong.

I wish I still had that since of naivete. But, I know longer possess it. Now, when I see a friend announce that they are pregnant, my first thought, if they are still in the 1st trimester, is...I hope they don't lose their baby. I didn't use to think this way. It makes me sad that I do. I used to feel joyful for them upon hearing the news despite where they were in their pregnancy. But having suffered loss 3 times, I fear that they will have that same loss, that same pain that, unless you have been there, no one else can quite comprehend.

Mother's Day was just a week ago. It was a day where I know in my heart that I am a mother. I am a mother of 3 angels in heaven. Yet, no one wished me a happy mother's day. I honestly didn't expect it, but I feel like I was a mom, even for a brief period of time.

Recently, I started thinking about the frequency of miscarriage. I once heard the stat that 30% of pregnancies result in miscarriage. I've even heard that it is likely more like 70% because many women are pregnant and lose their baby early in but think that their period is only 2 days late or so (chemical pregnancies). For now, though, let's deal with the 30% stat. I more recently read it is more like 20%. In my naivete, I interpreted this to mean that 20% of women (1 in 5) will suffer a miscarriage. That is pretty high when you think about it. However, it is higher than that. It isn't 20% of women, it is 20% of all pregnancies. That means it is quite likely that most women who get pregnant will likely suffer a miscarriage at sometime in her life.

Here are some other interesting stats:

Women have a ....

**75% chance of miscarriage at weeks 3 and 4 of pregnancy (when they are technically only 1-2 weeks pregnant).

**10% chance at weeks 5-8

**5% chance at weeks 8-14

For someone like me, who has had multiple losses and no live births, the stats are pretty scary.

**10-13% chance if you have had 1 loss
**40% chance if you have had 2 losses
**60% chance if you have had 3 or more losses.
**4 or more losses, a 5% chance of ever having a healthy pregnancy

This means, for me, I have more of a chance losing my next pregnancy than keeping it. Yikes! I keep praying that God will help us though. I told Chris that we will keep trying until I reach menopause and can't try anymore or we have a baby. Whichever happens first.

4 comments:

  1. I encourage you to read Jon Cohen's Coming to Term. He takes issue with the last stats you posted - as do several more recent studies. Those studies show that if a woman has had fewer than 10 miscarriages, her risk is nearly the same whether she is premi or multigravid (never had children, had children). The risk rises slightly between the 2nd and third miscarriage, but remains at approximately 30%.

    I know those stats are scary, but they are OLD stats based on bad research. I encourage you - for your mind and heart - to read the book.

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  2. Thanks! I will get that book. I'm happy to know those stats are likely inaccurate. It gives me even MORE hope! I haven't given up hope though. I still have lots of dreams where I am pregnant (more than 8 weeks) and have a baby. I didn't used to have these dreams, so I'm taking it as a hopeful sign. Then again, I could be a bit delusional.

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  3. I do not believe, ever, that hope is delusional. I say hang on to it. Really. I've seen miracles at work in my life and I believe, really, deeply in my heart, that they can happen to us too, you know? Living with the dual feelings of hope and defeat may seem impossible, but it's not. It's our territory to negotiate right now and I know we can do it, I really do.

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  4. Denise,

    Never forget that your mental state can help or hinder your success rate. Being positive is no guarantee of success, granted, but a negative and stressful mindset makes it more shaky.

    You WILL be a mom who has to change diapers, deal with temper tantrums, and clean dried food out of your hair. You will also be a mom who gets lots of little hugs, watch in wonder as a beautiful face sleeps peacefully, and looks at that little person grow up.

    Hopefully, of course, to be a Republican Cardinals fan. ;)

    David

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